China's economy will grow 9.2 per cent this year, the Asian Development Bank predicted yesterday.

It had earlier put the predicted growth rate at 8.5 per cent.

The country's economy showed little signs of a slowdown in the first half, propelled by surging exports, strong investment and accelerating consumption, the bank's senior economist Zhuang Jian said.

The growth will continue in the second half thanks to rising incomes and consumption, he said.

However, the economy is expected to grow at less than 9 per cent next year, according to the bank's Asian Development Outlook 2005 Update.

The consumer price index, the policy-makers' key inflation measurement, is expected to rise less than 3 per cent this year and next.

However, Zhuang said the economy faces some problems, including constrained energy supplies, a weak banking system, and over-capacity of some industries.

China has become the world's second largest oil consumer and one of the largest oil importers. The increased demand for oil is partly driven by the rising number of private cars, inefficient oil use, and price controls in the domestic oil market.

The country may face increasing energy bottlenecks in the future unless pricing becomes more responsive to market demand, and energy conservation and efficiency are encouraged, he said.

Zhuang pointed out that State-owned commercial banks need to improve services and strengthen capital structures and management in face of foreign competition.

He added that overcapacity in some industries has resulted from heavy investment.
"If the problem is not solved, deflationary pressure could develop and weaken profitability," he said.

(China Daily 09/09/2005 page2)