EIA expects worldwide energy use to rise nearly 50% by 2050

World energy consumption is expected to rise 50% from 2018 levels by 2050, driven by countries where strong economic growth is driving demand, particularly in Asia, the US Energy Information Administration said in its 2019 International Energy Outlook.

World energy consumption is expected to rise nearly 50% from 2018 levels by 2050, driven by countries where strong economic growth is driving demand, particularly in Asia, the US Energy Information Administration said as it released its 2019 International Energy Outlook (IEO) on Sept. 24.

“Energy consumption continues to grow globally, with changes in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East,” EIA Administrator Linda A. Capuano said during a presentation at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. There could be nearly 70% more demand by 2050 in countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, she said.

In the late 2040s, renewable fuels are expected to replace petroleum as the world’s main energy source as electricity use grows more quickly than other end-use fuels, Capuano said. Worldwide renewable energy consumption increases by 3.1%/year between 2018 and 2050 compared with 0.6%/year in petroleum and other liquids, 0.4%/year growth in coal, and 1.1%/year in natural gas consumption under the IEO’s reference case.

Other key takeaways from the forecast’s reference case included:

• Manufacturing centers shifting toward Africa and South Asia, especially India, resulting in energy consumption growth.

• Natural gas and petroleum product consumption rising in Asia more quickly than supplies are growing, potentially shifting trade patterns and infrastructure investments.

• End-use consumption increasingly shifting toward electricity.

• Falling costs, growing demand, and policies working together to shift the electricity generation mix.

The industrial sector will remain the single largest energy demand center, representing more than half of worldwide energy consumption during the projection period, Capuano said. “While China remains the world’s largest consumer, demand growth is moving to India and elsewhere in Asia,” she said. “Oil consumption is not expected to peak despite the tremendous growth in electricity which includes more use for electric vehicles.”

The IEO’s reference case projects a nearly 40% growth in transportation energy consumption from 2018 to 2050, largely driven by non-OECD countries, where transportation energy consumption is expected to increase nearly 80% during the forecast period. Energy consumption for both personal travel and freight movement is expected to grow much more rapidly in these countries than in many which are OECD members, it said.

The forecast’s reference case shows global natural gas consumption growing more than 40% to nearly 200 quadrillion btu (quads) by 2050. In addition to gas used to generate electricity, industrial sector consumption is expected to increase. Chemical and primary metals manufacturing, as well as oil and gas extraction, account for most of the growing industrial demand, the IEO said.

“A geographic mismatch between gas demand and supplies could lead to a significant expansion of trade through 2050,” Capuano observed.

Global liquid fuels consumption increases more than 20% between 2018 and 2050, and total consumption reaches more than 240 quads in 2050 under the IEO’s reference case. It called for demand in OECD countries to remain relatively stable during the projection period as non-OECD demand increases by about 45%.

“When you look at the expectation for efficiency, there could be a case for energy consumption growth to start falling off, but we haven’t seen it yet in our numbers,” Capuano said.

Source:Oil & Gas Journal  www.ogj.com